Tuesday, May 16, 2017

GISS April down 0.23°C - second warmest April on record.

I have been noting records showing a large drop from the very warm levels of March. NCEP/NCAR was down 0.23°C, TempLS down by0.165°C (now 0.16). GISS was also down 0.23°C, from 1.11C in March to 0.88 in April. But that is still warmer than any previous April except 2016. And it is warmer than the annual average for 2015 (0.82C), itself a notable record in its time. Sou has more. The April temperature is back to that of January, after the peaks of Feb and March.

The NCEP/NCAR dsaily record showed what happened. There was a sharp descent through the month, seeming to bottom out at the end. May has recovered somewhat, but is likely to also be much cooler than March, and is so far behind the April average..

I showed last month the year-to-date plot, compared with other warm years, noting that the year so far was ahead of the 2016 average, as shown by the red curve and horizontal line. Now YTD 2017 is right on the 2016 average. May will probably bring it below. Record prospects for 2017 now depend a lot on renewed El Nino activity. Here is the current YTD plot:



As usual, I will compare the GISS and previous TempLS plots below the jump. As with TempLS, there were fewer big features - lingering warmth in Siberia/Arctic, some cold in Antarctic.

Here is GISS


And here is the TempLS spherical harmonics plot





23 comments:

  1. JIASO April PDO index: 1.12, up from .74. Is a 2017 NH burn about to commence?

    the equator is already hot

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  2. May could be the first month of 2017 to be warmer than the corresponding month from 2016. June will have a lower bar to beat though.

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  3. Follow my twitter thread (@whut) on the assertion that the majority ENSO changes are driven by wind bursts. I argued that ENSO can also cause wind, which means that the causal direction is not firmly established. I asked about cross-correlations that might show the lead or lag between the factors, but did not get a response.

    This is the head-scratcher: QBO (wind) follows the lunar Draconic cycle. Chandler wobble (angular momentum) follows the Draconic cycle. ENSO (sloshing) follows the Draconic cycle.

    To them, this all appears to be a coincidence and any agreement is due to overfitting, as any cycle can be crow-barred into agreeing with any other cycle. Yet, apparently their massive GCMs are not prone to overfitting because the wind is uncertain, just as Curry says.

    This will take a while to unwind.

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    1. whut,

      Nobody is talking of QBO as wind bursts, they are surface winds, as told many month ago, El-Nino is a dynamical response with negativ and positive Feedback-Loops. Wind-Burst which can cause kelvin waves is well known and simple physics and you can watch their impact in upper ocean heat content.

      There a so much Papers about it, you should read them and beeing less confident in your own work, because as i read you comments, i think you had lost your "open mind"

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    2. I never said that QBO was wind bursts. It's obviously a persistent jet stream of order 0. The issue is that no one has ever taken Laplace's tidal equations and simplified them for the equatorial latitude.

      http://contextearth.com/2016/09/23/compact-qbo-derviation/

      "El-Nino is a dynamical response with negativ and positive Feedback-Loops. Wind-Burst which can cause kelvin waves is well known and simple physics and you can watch their impact in upper ocean heat content. "

      Anybody can make those kinds of statements. What causes the wind bursts? Is that like spontaneous combustion? It's laughable that a wind burst can cause a strong El Nino which will then cause world-wide disruption with far stronger winds that caused the original El Nino. Positive feedback does not operate within a vacuum. There has to be some external mechanism that forces it.

      The fact of the matter is that the ENSO behavior is likely a deterministic process, and one that is based on just a couple of factors. People do not understand that the Mathieu delay differential can describe quite complex phenomena with a astonishingly low number of dependent variables. Most think that ENSO will require dozens of Fourier factors to model, based on what they are comfortable with. And so they automatically assert that any model is the result of over-fitting. But with essentially one periodic factor one can fit QBO reasonably and with two, you can fit ENSO.

      I don't have to follow the other work on the topic. What they have to do is try to reject this model.




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  4. " It's laughable that a wind burst can cause a strong El Nino(..)"

    I see you dont know anything about atmosphere/ocean-interactions and you have no intention to learn about it, therefore it make no sense to talk about this topic with someone who dont know anything and want to know nothing about it.

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    1. No, its just that we are not gullible like Trump followers who will believe in magical action-at-a-distance explanations.

      Can you explain what causes the wind bursts? Who knows, perhaps it is the same forcing mechanism that I am proposing. Consider also, is it possible that this forcing will cause a wind burst at the same time it is causing an angular impulse to the oceanic volume? Maybe. But without any kind of intellectual curiosity you won't come up with anything new.

      Remember, the current consensus is that ENSO is unpredictable, mostly based on what a single scientist, Lorenz, asserted years ago. Every model after that was developed to not sway from that assertion. Thus, an unpredictable wind is as good a rationalization as anything else to provide a mechanism to support Lorenz's butterfly.


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    2. "Christian May 20, 2017 at 3:46 AM
      "I see you dont know anything about atmosphere/ocean-interactions and you have no intention to learn about it, therefore it make no sense to talk about this topic with someone who dont know anything and want to know nothing about it."


      I am using essentially the same delayed differential equations that physical oceanographers claim will describe ENSO, augmented with the sloshing formulation favored by hydrodynamics engineers. That's the math -- the observational physics that supports this includes the lunisolar gravitational tidal forces and the biennial period doubling. Keep up with the current research and you will find this is the direction the understanding is trending toward, independent of what I am finding. There is a saying that you need to eat your own dog food, buddy.

      http://contextearth.com/2017/05/21/the-lunar-geophysical-connection/


      Too bad that climate science insiders like Christian don't like outsiders coming in to their territory and making progress. It's apparently more important that they protect their consensus.

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    3. Holy Molly what is your problem? Since you have make clear that you unable to understand how a windburst could cause downwelling development or not want to, its clearly make no sense for me to talk with you. Science is always in flow, therefor people how think there own work is only relevant are a little bit captured in the past.

      So in the end, to talk with you under this circumstances is lost lifetime

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    4. Christian,

      Likely that climate scientists such as Lindzen don't understand the wind as well as they think they do. It's obvious that the QBO wind is driven by the Draconic lunar cycle, as the period matches exactly once the seasonal reinforcement is taken into account.

      If you compare the underlying Draconic forcing for both ENSO and QBO, you will find they align. Not a big surprise. So there you go -- a case of wind carrying the same information as the ocean since the base forcing is common.

      The only geology class that I took in college was limnology, which is the study of lakes. And having lived in the north, I understand the idea of overturning and how unstable a thermocline is. It's going to overturn whether a wind is there or not. Salt water is not the same but substitute angular momentum shifts for wind to establish a predictable thermocline sloshing mechanism.

      Open up your mind, man. It's clear that climate science hasn't advanced at all on this topic, and that they are likely resistant to new ideas. In that link I gave above, I point out the case of one JPL researcher who tried to get funding for a similar line of research. Her idea was not that revolutionary -- that perhaps several climate measures shouldn't be compensating for tidal forces, as these same forces may be causing the interesting variations in the measure! So if you compensate that effect out, you just eliminated a potential mechanism.


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  5. Or in other Words that i think you hopefully understand:

    You give me to understand, that you rigth all others irrelevant, so ask yourself why should i talk with you about?

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    1. Or if you want an example: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2017-enso-update-mayday

      You told there:

      "This results in a cyclic sloshing that alternately exposes warmer and colder water to the surface."

      Thats totally wrong, because Nino-Area is in climatology a net heat sink, because of trade winds and the humbold current to the south american continent. That means, the water is sometimes cool and sometimes less cool but its not warmer as from the Insolation would it warm. In other words, a El-Nino is nothing else then a warming near to Insolation equilibrium, because trade winds had weaken, therefor upwelling of cold water below have weaken and the water which is been upwelled becomes warmer by pushing down the thermocline (caused by downwelling kelvin-waves)

      So as you see, it have nothing to do with exposes warmer and colder water to the surface. And in the End and as far as i know you, i am wrong, you are correct bla bla bla. So hope we can end this! Thanks!

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    2. Christian, The SOI is an oscillating dipole. Do you know what a dipole is?
      Get back to me when you figure it out.

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    3. Also, look into why tidal force is considered a confounding variable.

      There is no possibility of creating a controlled experiment, yet the majority of researchers have failed to eliminate tidal force as a possibility, thus prompting the question as to the validity of the wind conjecture.

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  6. @ whut

    you tell nothing new, that why its called ENSO :-) And in the End, explaining SOI is not the problem, the problem is to forecast the power of a event and your "Model" is also unable to do it, or please show me the Nino3.4 Temperatur for the last 50y where not only La-Nina-El-Nino is indicated, by also the correct power of the event

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    1. Completely wrong response. Any normal scientist would look at the results and indicate that they were not necessarily conflicting with the data. A scientist with any intellectual curiosity might even join in the analysis and provide quantitative arguments, such as providing statistical evidence of how worthy the model is.

      The reality is that this analysis is much like tidal prediction. The first order of business is to get the timing of the peaks correct. This is analogous to predicting the times of high and low tides. To second order we can get the power of the peaks to match. That may require a different focus, perhaps using a more short-term fit.

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    2. @ whut

      If your model cant do this, its nothing new or better what you can give. There a so many papers with method and models which are able to forecast an event more or less. So since your are talking so strong words, i had thought that your model give something really new. So therefore, you should lower your tone, because you work not really help to the main problem of forecasting the correct power of the events

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    3. Christian, Your debunking is so laughably shallow. It should be easy for you to explain away why the solid earth wobbles with the draconic cycle (the Chandler wobble), the equatorial jet stream reverses direction according to the draconic cycle (the QBO), and how ENSO follows the draconic cycle as well.

      You can call these coincidences, but good luck with that. It was a long time ago that people without access to computers could figure out that the moon and sun determined tidal frequencies.

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  7. whut,

    I looked at your webpage and saw that your model underestimate the power of both, La-Nina and El-Nino and sometimes it went wrong. So its not better then Models that are published, they all suffer from the same problem, they are unable to forecast the power of each event

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    1. Perfection is the enemy of the good. The fact that it doesn't work uniformly and flawlessly could mean that I missed a contributing factor. Yet, the overall timing does not rule out the mechanism. I showed the timing fit was highly selective, able to identify the draconic tide of 27.2122 days to several decimal places and the anomalistic tide of 27.5545 also to several decimal places. Debunking the model should be child's play for you, as you only need to show how it doesn't match the timing. Good luck with that!

      And you are being disingenuous when you say that "they are unable to forecast the power of each event". In fact no one has even been able to get the sign or timing of an event more than a few months in advance. So, the reality is that consensus science has no understanding of the behavior at all.

      I don't know what your problem is, you certainly don't know English that well, so perhaps you don't even know what you are saying.

      The analogy is that I have isolated the 60 Hz signal that is causing the hum in the circuit, whereas you are complaining that I have not produced the amplitude of the factor correctly so should be dismissed. Even a denier such as Lindzen would have issues with that.

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    2. " In fact no one has even been able to get the sign or timing of an event more than a few months in advance."

      Ja, since you not read other papers on this topic, you cant know that there was papers published with 1 year :-). And its not about debunking, i cant find any really new stuff and you already has shown here, that you are not interested in understanding the underlying physics. And y, i am not a native speaker in english.

      "The fact that it doesn't work uniformly and flawlessly could mean that I missed a contributing factor"

      No, its because of dynamical responses which isnt a periodic behavior. Or in other words, if you understand the underlying physics, you already would have known in early 2016, that the La-Nina in End 2016 would likly become much less powerfull then the La-Nina in end of 1998.

      So what really prevent you for getting a more better model, is your arrogance that you not have to know about dynamical responses such as feedback-loops

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    3. Your own arrogance is unbounded. You either have not looked at my model or do not have the capacity to understand it. I do indeed have a feedback loop in the delay differential equation I use. This delay DiffEq is something that has been discussed in the ENSO research community for years. The delay is from the previous year and creates a positive feedback to accenuate a biennial modulation in the effective forcing.

      This biennial modulation can also be deduced from tidal SLH measurements

      http://contextearth.com/2017/05/10/enso-and-tidal-slh-a-biennial-connection/

      Combining the biennial feedback with the lunar forcing is the key to matching the dynamical ENSO response. It's not surprising that no one has tried this combination before, as there is a noticeable dearth of intellectual curiosity in this arena. Perhaps with the overwhelming advances in machine learning, AI programs will deduce these patterns before humans will.

      Consider also that the lunar connection to earthquake activity has only been seriously advanced in the last year. Significant papers by both Japanese and USGS teams are fascinating reads. The USGS had to update their FAQ to reflect these findings : "Can the position of the moon or the planets affect seismicity?"
      https://www2.usgs.gov/faq/categories/9827/3354



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    4. Christian said:
      "Ja, since you not read other papers on this topic, you cant know that there was papers published with 1 year :-)."

      LOL, here is a 2-month old paper from the UH ENSO group on delay differential equations that is getting awfully close to what I am doing.

      Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships

      They aren't quite there yet because they are modulating with a one-year cycle instead of a two-year cycle. The one year cycle does not capture the biennial features and is a much weaker harmonic. They also don't yet comprehend the connection between delay differential equations and the Mathieu equation, which defines the underlying hydrodynamics of sloshing.

      So why aren't you going after Stuecker, Timmermann, Jin, Chikamoto, Zhang, Wittenberg, Widiasih, and Zhao for their arrogance? Don't they realize that this is all a dead end? LOL I forgot that they are part of the mainstream climate science community.

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